How to Read the La Ventana Wind Forecast Like a Local
Whether you are planning a trip down to La Ventana, Baja California Sur, Mexico or are already here and want to know when to head to the beach, we’ve got you covered. Here we will help you make sense of the wind forecast in LV.
iKitesurf is one of the best, most reliable wind forecast websites out there. We have the forecast displayed on our La Ventana page for quick and easy access.
Things to Pay Attention to on iKitesurf
iKitesurf offers 10 different forecast models to choose from, which can make it confusing to know what the wind will actually do. A good place to start is the “blend” model, which combines all the forecast models together and averages them . This tends to show you the most realistic picture.
At the bottom of the forecast page, you can usually find a few written forecast notes from a local meteorologist. Keep in mind, he usually doesn't arrive in the area until November so early in the season you will have to rely on patterns and conditions.
How accurate are the forecasts?
The most accurate forecast is usually within three days. Since the wind is most consistent in January, you can have a more loose plan. But then again, even with the most seasoned forecast/meteorologist, it’s at best an educated guess. If the wind doesn't come, there is so much to do in La Ventana. Go eFoiling, swim, snorkel, explore town, or relax with a margarita.
Should You Plan a Trip Around the Forecast?
January is typically the best wind month in La Ventana. Water temperatures are cooler, but the land still warms enough to generate strong thermals. This is also when we see the most northern storm systems, known as El Nortes, moving through the area. Planning a trip during peak season and staying flexible is often better than trying to perfectly time a forecast far in advance. Check out our blog about the best wind months in La Ventana.
When are the forecasts wrong?
Forecasts are wrong if high clouds start moving in, which dampen our local thermals. On iKitesurf, thermals are not always added to the forecast. If the wind blows from the NNE to NE and the sky is clear, you can add 2-4mph to the forecasted wind speeds.
Forecast reliability and wind strength can vary depending on ENSO conditions, with La Niña years typically producing stronger and more consistent northerlies, and El Niño years showing more variability. The ENSO phase affects frequency and consistency more than day-to-day speed.
El Niño years often bring fewer strong Norte events, more variability, and lighter average winter wind.
La Niña years usually bring stronger and more frequent northerlies.
Signs of a Good Wind Day Even If the Numbers Look Bad
A due north wind combined with clear skies is often a great sign, even if the forecasted wind speed looks low. These conditions allow thermals to build, turning an average forecast into a solid riding day by afternoon.
A Note About Current Wind Speeds
If you are already in La Ventana and checking the live wind meter to decide what size kite or wing to bring, pay close attention to wind direction. When there is a westerly component, the meters may underreport the true wind strength because the wind blows past them. In these conditions, the stronger wind is usually found on the outside, farther offshore.
Come in before the sun goes down
Like clockwork, thermal winds in La Ventana start to fade between 4 and 5 pm as the sun drops behind the mountains. If you want to extend your session, stay closer to shore as the light wind line moves in. This can help you avoid a long swim back at the end of the day.
Once you understand how thermals, cloud cover, and wind direction work together, you will stop misunderstanding the forecasts and know exactly when to show up. If you are planning a trip to LV anytime soon, check out our Full Travel Guide.