The Impact of a Super El Niño on Wind Sports
You have probably heard of the term Super El Niño online or in the news. When we are talking about an El Niño, we are looking at the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this blog, we will discuss the impacts of a very strong El Niño on kiteboarding and wingfoiling at our locations in La Ventana and Corpus Christi.
What is an El Niño?
El Niño was first observed by fishermen off the coast of Peru in the 16th century when they noticed abnormally warm water temperatures around Christmas, hence the original name El Niño de Navidad.
ENSO is a natural climate pattern that occurs in the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean and is influenced by the temperature of the ocean and the atmospheric air pressure. This natural weather phenomenon has three phases: Neutral, El Niño, and La Niña, each with mild, moderate, or strong intensity.
During the neutral, or normal, phase, atmospheric pressure is low (warm) in the tropical Pacific and high (cool) in the northern Pacific. Air naturally moves from high pressure to low pressure, creating a positive feedback loop; this movement is also known as the trade winds.
During an El Niño phase, the water surface temperature is 1-3°C warmer than during the neutral phase. The warmer ocean water may weaken or even reverse the positive feedback loop during the El Niño phase. The warmer water decreases air pressure across the central and eastern Pacific. This often means more rainfall across the west coast of the Americas and less rainfall around Indonesia and Australia.
What is “Super” El Niño?
To break it down, the “Super” part of this year’s El Niño simply means the warmer water temperatures (even for an El Niño year) will likely cause more extreme weather events. This year’s El Niño has already been observed as breaking records, and NOAA predicts that there is a 78% chance of a very strong El Niño this winter and a high likelihood of this winter being the strongest El Niño in 70+ years.
El Niño can cause extreme weather around the Pacific
For years, people have blamed El Niño for all kinds of weather effects such as drought, floods, and record-breaking heat.
While the Pacific is the largest body of water in the world, ENSO affects at most 25% of the world. Even though there is a correlation between El Niño and some weather effects near and far, and it can and has produced drier climates in Indonesia, Australia, and India, while wetter climates are often expected elsewhere, there are also other weather patterns that can influence its impact.
Current forecasts show that we have been in an El Niño phase since June 2026.
That does not necessarily mean that we should expect strong weather impacts. For example, in a strong El Niño winter of 1997-98, Indonesia was expected to have wildfires, and Kenya was anticipating floods. This did not happen.
Looking at India during the El Niño of 2002, a weaker El Niño triggered more rainfall that year, whereas a more moderate El Niño in 2010 brought less rain.
It is important to remember that ENSO changes the odds of an area receiving more or less rainfall, but it is not guaranteed.
What does Super El Niño mean for La Ventana in the winter of 2026-27?
The effects on our local wind machine are not documented or researched. We can draw parallels from a study that compared Santa Ana winds in California, which bring our El Norte winds, according to a study that looked at 30 years of ENSO variability and its effect on wind patterns. The El Nortes that come from the SoCal area or the Santa Ana winds diminish only marginally.
Another study examined a strong El Niño in 2016 and its effects on marine life. It concludes that there was a delay of peak wind performance by one month.
It can be very difficult to predict long-term weather patterns, especially since scientists are predicting that this may be the most extreme El Niño in recorded history. However, we won’t know for sure until after it peaks in December.
Lighter wind can make for better learning conditions
Every season has lighter days, whether it's an El Niño year or not. The difference is how your school uses them for your best learning outcome. During moderate to lighter days, wingfoiling lessons and kiteboarding lessons can work well if you have properly sized equipment.
Learning or progressing in any sport, kiteboarding, wingfoiling, and parawinging can feel great when the wind is lighter, and the swell is smaller. Less swell, less ocean movement, more stability, and more successful rides.
When we have light or no-wind days, you can progress or just have some fun with an eFoil session or a tow-behind lesson.
Warmer Water is a Bonus
One upside of El Niño you will feel the moment you get in the water.
During El Niño years, the water temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit in the summer. In the winter, the ocean temperature can be 1 degree Celsius warmer. When you are learning, this will make you feel more comfortable, as you are spending more time in the water than already proficient riders.
This means lighter wetsuits, longer time spent in the water practicing, and less chill when you are out of the water.
How does the Super El Niño affect the wind in Corpus Christi?
The season in Corpus starts just at the tail end of the El Niño, so the story looks a little different there than in La Ventana. The National Weather Center says that El Niño is likely to spill into Spring of 2027.
March and April may experience cooler air and water temps than usual, which makes for a more comfortable session.
With Texas having been in a drought for the last few years, El Niño could refill the water reservoirs during the winter, making for an even better time on the water, with levels higher so less walking to get to the deep spots for foiling.
No wind? No worries
Nobody can promise the wind; what we can promise is that you won't be left high and dry.
Every lesson booked is built around the wind and weather forecast. Our team gets together every morning to check and assign different wind speeds to the person with the right skill level. If there is no wind on the day of your lesson, we will reschedule it for the next available time when there is wind. And don't worry: if by the end of your stay you have hours unused due to lack of wind, we will, of course, refund you the remainder.